The alternative government of Fine Gael and Labour has moved into a strong position to win the forthcoming general election, according to the latest TNS mrbi opinion poll carried out for The Irish Times . It shows a big swing to Fine Gael and another drop in support for Fianna Fáil, writes Stephen Collins , Political Editor.
An increase of 5 per cent in support for Fine Gael since the last Irish Times poll in January means that the Fine Gael-Labour alternative has pulled four points ahead of the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats coalition. If the Green Party is included, the alternative government parties have a lead of 10 per cent over Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats.
The adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil 34 per cent (down 3 points); Fine Gael 31 per cent (up 5 points); Labour 10 per cent (down 1 point); Sinn Féin 10 per cent (up 1 point); Greens 6 per cent (down 2 points); PDs 3 per cent (up 2 points); and Independents/others 6 per cent (down 2 points).
I'm not even going to try to pundify the poll numbers that are out in Ireland this morning. I have been away two years; I am used to reading vastly different polling numbers, and I have too much emotional investment in the forthcoming general election to be unbiased.
But I will say this: very confused electorate which is about right for the time of the cycle.
The Greens are down 2 points, and the Independents are down 2 points and Labour is down 1 point, so that could be all the FG support going home. Which if the coalition pact works well could be okay, as it will go back to the Greens and Labour at the end of the day and get them over the line.
You could say the same about the FF drop - if it went to SF and the PDs, then presumably a good vote management system will get it back in such a way that it won't matter.
The core vote for the parties is: Fianna Fáil 32 per cent (down 3 points); Fine Gael 23 per cent (up 4 points); Labour 7 per cent (down 1 point); Sinn Féin 8 per cent (up 1 point); Greens 4 per cent (down 2 points) PDs 2 per cent (up one point); Independents/others 5 per cent (down 1 point); and undecided voters 19 per cent (up 1 point).
The real concern here is the continued slide in the Labour vote and the surge in the Sinn Fein vote.
Because it's all about momentum isn't it.
The Queen Dad and I had talked about this recently and figured a Fianna Fail - Labour coalition would be the probable outcome, as Labour's continued decline will probably not get the numbers to get FG into power.
But now I'm not so sure.
Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein?
Fianna Fail will have to emasculate SF in order to stop them growing more.
What better way to do that then to enter into coalition with them?
They'd get rid of McDowell and the PDs.
How much will SF grow in the next two months? I imagine FF have hit rock bottom now; I can't imagine them going below 30 per cent. So they'll probably get back up to the core vote necessary to manage a respectable showing.
Who will SF take votes from to keep growing? If in fact that is what happens?
Last time it was Fianna Fail. They have gotten all they can from them, so who will they take from now?
It has to be the Greens and Labour.
Long silence.
Don't like that at all. No sireebob. Neither would Mr. Collins, which is why he hasn't even mentioned it I'd imagine.
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