I am going to be in Ireland in 283 hours!
And I keep thinking about whether or not it will be the same.
Which is pointless.
Because I have forgotten what it is like.
Some time is passed trying to remember what Dublin is like...apart from pub interiors...
I remember them pretty well.
I think it's because they're where all the light and colour were.
I can't get my Control button to work. I'm stuck in italics.
Some time is spent fixing the italics button.
Okay... where was I?
Oh yes. Light and colour.
That's how I remember things.
This journey I have been on, for the last year and a half, has ramped up so much speed that I am now HURTLING through time and space in my own time machine with my own assistant.
And I am about to step into a new episode, which will be Dublin in the Future.
Christ I hope there aren't any Daleks.
They're like bears. Only worse.
Or zombies.
Himself will probably try to shoot one of them. For supper.
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Final Ballot and new Liberal leader
Total Valid Poll - 4,605Needed to Win - 2,304
Candidate - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
Dion - 858 - 974 - 1,782 - 2,529
Ignatieff - 1,412 - 1,481 - 1,660 - 2,076
Well, at least the environment will have a champion at a very senior level in Canadian politics, as Dion is one of the architects of the Kyoto second level targets and actually named his dog Kyoto.
It will cause upset in the Liberal party as all the old guard were backing Iggy or Rae. But who cares about that.
And poor Iggy. I do admire his journalism and intellect. But he's not a very good politician.
So now Canadian politics are remarkably like Irish politics. Without the personality.
Stephen Harper is Michael McDowell without the personality.
Stephane Dion is Michael D. without the personality.
The Greens are just as annoying and lacking in personality as their Irish counterparts, but they're in trouble now with a viable Liberal alternative.
And Jack Layton is Enda Kenny with a porn star moustache.
And I'm done with politics for a month. Onto nicer things.... my forthcoming holiday to Ireland.
Third Round Results
Total Valid Poll - 4,817
Needed to Win - 2,410
Candidate - 1st - 2nd - 3rd
Dion - 858 - 974 - 1,782
Ignatieff - 1,412 - 1,481 - 1,660
Rae - 977 - 1,132 - 1,375
Well, there you go. It's a Dion - Ignatieff race and Dion is in charge.
So Bob Rae is the kingmaker.
The expectation is that he will let his delegates vote freely. (Like he has a choice). Iggy is gone to talk to him now.
Iggy is very arrogant. He probably won't eat crow enough to pull it off. But what the hell do I know.
Needed to Win - 2,410
Candidate - 1st - 2nd - 3rd
Dion - 858 - 974 - 1,782
Ignatieff - 1,412 - 1,481 - 1,660
Rae - 977 - 1,132 - 1,375
Well, there you go. It's a Dion - Ignatieff race and Dion is in charge.
So Bob Rae is the kingmaker.
The expectation is that he will let his delegates vote freely. (Like he has a choice). Iggy is gone to talk to him now.
Iggy is very arrogant. He probably won't eat crow enough to pull it off. But what the hell do I know.
Third Round Ballot Results not even in yet and it's chaos
Well, the prevailing sentiment amongst the pundits is that Bob Rae is out. So there goes my prediction. The Dion camp is very smug. The Ignatieff camp is showing off minority delegates they are snaffling from other camps.
The DJ is playing "We are Family". As the family is tearing itself apart on live television.
Again.
This is truly the most bizarre event I have ever seen. Rick Mercer, who is the Gerry Stembridge of Canadian politics, is on the panel now and is pointing out how everyone in the convention centre is lying through their teeth and how it is complete chaos.
You can email Peter Mansbridge who is hosting it. Most of the emails are from concerned citizens wondering how the candidates get to go to the toilet without being followed by a media scrum.
The answer is they don't. As far as I can see.
Twenty minutes before the results are out the Rae camp is unofficially conceding.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The DJ is playing "We are Family". As the family is tearing itself apart on live television.
Again.
This is truly the most bizarre event I have ever seen. Rick Mercer, who is the Gerry Stembridge of Canadian politics, is on the panel now and is pointing out how everyone in the convention centre is lying through their teeth and how it is complete chaos.
You can email Peter Mansbridge who is hosting it. Most of the emails are from concerned citizens wondering how the candidates get to go to the toilet without being followed by a media scrum.
The answer is they don't. As far as I can see.
Twenty minutes before the results are out the Rae camp is unofficially conceding.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How things might shake out
Ooookay... there are 1,100 votes up for grabs.
Here's what I think.
Ignatieff probably won't win now. In fact, he's left the convention floor to huddle with his advisors.
Kennedy asked his delegates to go to Dion. The reason he has done this is because he is from Ontario and wants a Quebec leader, so that the next time it will be an Ontarian (traditional the Liberal leaders alternate).
The polling shows that Kennedy's delegates are evenly split between Rae and Dion. If this happens, Dion will remain in third place and will be knocked off the the ballot paper. Then Rae will beat Iggy as Dion's people will go to Rae.
If Dion gets 2/3 of the delegates, and Rae gets 1/3 (including the Dryden votes), then they will both pass Iggy and he will fall off the ballot paper. That will be really interesting, as the final showdown will be between a francophone policy wonk and an Ontarian former socialist. The Liberals need Rae, but they might not be able to stomach him and go for Dion. That will be a mistake. Dion will not beat Harper.
If Dion gets all of Kennedy's votes, then he will jump into the lead and Dryden's votes will decide who comes second. Rae could fall off the ballot then. If that is the case, then possibly his vote could give it to Ignatieff.
But I don't think Dion will get that much of a transfer. He's too francophone.
Here's what I think.
Ignatieff probably won't win now. In fact, he's left the convention floor to huddle with his advisors.
Kennedy asked his delegates to go to Dion. The reason he has done this is because he is from Ontario and wants a Quebec leader, so that the next time it will be an Ontarian (traditional the Liberal leaders alternate).
The polling shows that Kennedy's delegates are evenly split between Rae and Dion. If this happens, Dion will remain in third place and will be knocked off the the ballot paper. Then Rae will beat Iggy as Dion's people will go to Rae.
If Dion gets 2/3 of the delegates, and Rae gets 1/3 (including the Dryden votes), then they will both pass Iggy and he will fall off the ballot paper. That will be really interesting, as the final showdown will be between a francophone policy wonk and an Ontarian former socialist. The Liberals need Rae, but they might not be able to stomach him and go for Dion. That will be a mistake. Dion will not beat Harper.
If Dion gets all of Kennedy's votes, then he will jump into the lead and Dryden's votes will decide who comes second. Rae could fall off the ballot then. If that is the case, then possibly his vote could give it to Ignatieff.
But I don't think Dion will get that much of a transfer. He's too francophone.
Second Ballot Results
Total Valid Poll 4,690,
Needed to win 2,346
Dion 974 up 138
Dryden 219 down 19
Ignatieff 1,481 up 69
Kennedy 884 up 30
Rae 1,132 up 155
The vote is down on the last one. So people are holding their fire.
So Ignatieff is the only one who only needs just one candidate to move to him to win. His people are more tail up than before. Rae and Dion both need Kennedy and Dryden to win on the next ballot.
Dion is calling for all delegates to move to him. They're waiting for Kennedy to call for his delegates to go to him. Dryden will go to Rae, presumably.
And there's about 1,100 votes up for grabs now and there's twenty minutes to snag them. Even though a candidate can ask his delegates to move to another candidate, they don't have to do it. They can vote for whomever they want. As can anyone after the first ballot.
Very strange system.
Rae only got about half of the votes he was trying to get from Volpe and Brison's camp, whereas Dion got all of Hall-Findley's votes. Now Dryden has offered him 219 votes, but if Kennedy drops out, he has over 800 which, if he delivers them to Dion will push Dion ahead of Rae.
Michael Ignatieff is sitting looking a little lonely as no one is offering him votes. There's a substantial Anyone but Iggy campaign going on.
Needed to win 2,346
Dion 974 up 138
Dryden 219 down 19
Ignatieff 1,481 up 69
Kennedy 884 up 30
Rae 1,132 up 155
The vote is down on the last one. So people are holding their fire.
So Ignatieff is the only one who only needs just one candidate to move to him to win. His people are more tail up than before. Rae and Dion both need Kennedy and Dryden to win on the next ballot.
Dion is calling for all delegates to move to him. They're waiting for Kennedy to call for his delegates to go to him. Dryden will go to Rae, presumably.
And there's about 1,100 votes up for grabs now and there's twenty minutes to snag them. Even though a candidate can ask his delegates to move to another candidate, they don't have to do it. They can vote for whomever they want. As can anyone after the first ballot.
Very strange system.
Rae only got about half of the votes he was trying to get from Volpe and Brison's camp, whereas Dion got all of Hall-Findley's votes. Now Dryden has offered him 219 votes, but if Kennedy drops out, he has over 800 which, if he delivers them to Dion will push Dion ahead of Rae.
Michael Ignatieff is sitting looking a little lonely as no one is offering him votes. There's a substantial Anyone but Iggy campaign going on.
Watching water polo in murky water
While we are waiting for the results, Ignatieff and Rae, who were room mates in University, had a staged meet and greet where they said that friendship is more important than politics.
I wish.
Speculation is rife that Rae and Iggy are going to combine to defeat Dion and Kennedy. Kennedy will go over to Dion if he comes in fourth. The word is that Dryden's people will go over to Rae.
So it is starting to look like I might be right and it will be Rae and Dion on the final ballot. Which is Ontario v Quebec.
When is it otherwise??
But will the next ballot be the third or the fourth.
I am such a junkie for this shit....
I wish.
Speculation is rife that Rae and Iggy are going to combine to defeat Dion and Kennedy. Kennedy will go over to Dion if he comes in fourth. The word is that Dryden's people will go over to Rae.
So it is starting to look like I might be right and it will be Rae and Dion on the final ballot. Which is Ontario v Quebec.
When is it otherwise??
But will the next ballot be the third or the fourth.
I am such a junkie for this shit....
The vultures have appeared
Just little dots in the sky over the conference centre at the moment.
They are particularly zoning in on Iggy, as he is sitting in the hall with his wife in an obvious sulk about something. His inexperience in politics plays against him at times like this - he forgets he has to pretend that everything is hunky dorey even if his whole strategy is falling apart.
What is going on now is that each camp is trying to poach delegates from other camps so that they can a) get more votes in the second ballot, and b) persuade the media that they have the momentum.
They are all in groups in the conference hall, each of the groups shouting and singing, carrying banners and posters.
Tambourines with the face of the candidate on them are big this year, boys and girls, for those of you who will be running election campaigns next spring/ summer. I will work on the first campaign to offer me free tambourines. They rock.
Ignatieff supporters are now shouting and roaring and tambourining loudly as he has poached 40 South Asian minority delegates from other parties. Rae's people are quietly tambourining the news that he has poached Dion people. Dion has changed his colour scheme today from Liberal red to Green. To symbolise growth. Yeah, Stephane, I believe you. Why don't you just leave and form an environmental party called the Greens.
Dion has poached Ignatieff people, but.
Wolfie Kennedy has managed to poach one person from the other camps. I think his youth is showing now and the momentum is not going to the whitest teeth in the room.
Politics is so peurile sometimes, isn't it.
My gut is telling me it will be between Rae and Dion and that Rae will win. Second ballot voting is just finished so we will know more in a few minutes
They are particularly zoning in on Iggy, as he is sitting in the hall with his wife in an obvious sulk about something. His inexperience in politics plays against him at times like this - he forgets he has to pretend that everything is hunky dorey even if his whole strategy is falling apart.
What is going on now is that each camp is trying to poach delegates from other camps so that they can a) get more votes in the second ballot, and b) persuade the media that they have the momentum.
They are all in groups in the conference hall, each of the groups shouting and singing, carrying banners and posters.
Tambourines with the face of the candidate on them are big this year, boys and girls, for those of you who will be running election campaigns next spring/ summer. I will work on the first campaign to offer me free tambourines. They rock.
Ignatieff supporters are now shouting and roaring and tambourining loudly as he has poached 40 South Asian minority delegates from other parties. Rae's people are quietly tambourining the news that he has poached Dion people. Dion has changed his colour scheme today from Liberal red to Green. To symbolise growth. Yeah, Stephane, I believe you. Why don't you just leave and form an environmental party called the Greens.
Dion has poached Ignatieff people, but.
Wolfie Kennedy has managed to poach one person from the other camps. I think his youth is showing now and the momentum is not going to the whitest teeth in the room.
Politics is so peurile sometimes, isn't it.
My gut is telling me it will be between Rae and Dion and that Rae will win. Second ballot voting is just finished so we will know more in a few minutes
Now they're playing ground hurling...
Okay, official results of the first ballot:
Brison 192 - Scott has announced he is dropping out and going to Bob Rae.
Dion 858
Dryden 238
Hall Findlay 130 - Martha has announced she is dropping out and going to Stephan Dion
Ignatieff - 1,412
Kennedy - 854
Rae - 977
Volpe - 156 - Joe Volpe has announced he is dropping out and going to Bob Rae
They are doing everything in French and then English, so I keep getting the numbers wrong as the Quebec accent is difficult for me to understand.
So basically, the first ballot went as expected, except Stephane Dion (former Environment Minister and all-round good guy) edged ahead of Kennedy (toothsome guy I instinctively don't trust).
Himself and I almost had a row about Kennedy last night. Himself thinks he's the best. I had to explain that you had to not listen to what they say too closely and look at their teeth. Having said that, Himself is as entitled to his opinion as everyone else. And Kennedy is younger and more energetic.
Scott Brison (former Tory, gay MP, Nova Scotian and former star of this blog) is giving his 'I give up' speech. He has told his delegates that he will vote for Rae now, but they can go to whomever they like. How many of them will stay with the herd?
In terms of the second ballot, what was supposed to happen was that Dryden would drop out as well and then the second ballot would be a sudden death knock out between Dion and Kennedy (who are in third and fourth place). Fortunately for us junkies, Ken Dryden is being as bull-headed as he obviously was to be a hockey Hall of Famer and so there will be an interesting second ballot now. Interesting for that and for a number of other reasons:
- a number of delegates didn't get to vote yesterday because bad weather delayed them
- there are people called ex-officio delegates who can vote for whomever they like and they voted for Martha Hall Finlay and Ken Dryden last night for heart-tugging reasons.
- lots of people voted before the speeches last night, and Ignatieff in particular thinks he will get more votes in this round.
- the only person with any momentum is Dion, who is real, old-school, Quebec Liberal.
There is ongoing television coverage on three channels, but there is nothing going on, so the journalists are basically roaming the halls looking to see who's talking to whom.
Worse than the Fianna Fail Executive convention.
Brison 192 - Scott has announced he is dropping out and going to Bob Rae.
Dion 858
Dryden 238
Hall Findlay 130 - Martha has announced she is dropping out and going to Stephan Dion
Ignatieff - 1,412
Kennedy - 854
Rae - 977
Volpe - 156 - Joe Volpe has announced he is dropping out and going to Bob Rae
They are doing everything in French and then English, so I keep getting the numbers wrong as the Quebec accent is difficult for me to understand.
So basically, the first ballot went as expected, except Stephane Dion (former Environment Minister and all-round good guy) edged ahead of Kennedy (toothsome guy I instinctively don't trust).
Himself and I almost had a row about Kennedy last night. Himself thinks he's the best. I had to explain that you had to not listen to what they say too closely and look at their teeth. Having said that, Himself is as entitled to his opinion as everyone else. And Kennedy is younger and more energetic.
Scott Brison (former Tory, gay MP, Nova Scotian and former star of this blog) is giving his 'I give up' speech. He has told his delegates that he will vote for Rae now, but they can go to whomever they like. How many of them will stay with the herd?
In terms of the second ballot, what was supposed to happen was that Dryden would drop out as well and then the second ballot would be a sudden death knock out between Dion and Kennedy (who are in third and fourth place). Fortunately for us junkies, Ken Dryden is being as bull-headed as he obviously was to be a hockey Hall of Famer and so there will be an interesting second ballot now. Interesting for that and for a number of other reasons:
- a number of delegates didn't get to vote yesterday because bad weather delayed them
- there are people called ex-officio delegates who can vote for whomever they like and they voted for Martha Hall Finlay and Ken Dryden last night for heart-tugging reasons.
- lots of people voted before the speeches last night, and Ignatieff in particular thinks he will get more votes in this round.
- the only person with any momentum is Dion, who is real, old-school, Quebec Liberal.
There is ongoing television coverage on three channels, but there is nothing going on, so the journalists are basically roaming the halls looking to see who's talking to whom.
Worse than the Fianna Fail Executive convention.
Friday, December 01, 2006
Gerard Kennedy - the uberkind
Gerard Kennedy is up now. He's positioning himself as the new Trudeau.
He has Trudeau's son introducing him.
Young Trudeau is possibly the most annoying Canadian on the planet. Bar George Stromboulopolous. Except George has a job and s not just an opinionated social butterfly. No, I don't really mean that. I like George, I'm just jealous because he has the best job in Canada, hosting The Hour, CBC's edgy, pop culture-y, witty current affairs program which goes out at eleven pm every night.
Secretly I like George because if Luke McManus was Canadian he'd be George Stromboulopolous.
And his teeth are too white.
Kennedy's I mean. Not Luke's.
Never trust a man who claims to care about the poor if his teeth are too white. Kennedy ran the first Food Bank in Canada.
That's my learning for today.
Kennedy is being even more boring than Dion.
Bob Rae is up next. And then the Prince of Darkness himself. Ignatieff.
He has Trudeau's son introducing him.
Young Trudeau is possibly the most annoying Canadian on the planet. Bar George Stromboulopolous. Except George has a job and s not just an opinionated social butterfly. No, I don't really mean that. I like George, I'm just jealous because he has the best job in Canada, hosting The Hour, CBC's edgy, pop culture-y, witty current affairs program which goes out at eleven pm every night.
Secretly I like George because if Luke McManus was Canadian he'd be George Stromboulopolous.
And his teeth are too white.
Kennedy's I mean. Not Luke's.
Never trust a man who claims to care about the poor if his teeth are too white. Kennedy ran the first Food Bank in Canada.
That's my learning for today.
Kennedy is being even more boring than Dion.
Bob Rae is up next. And then the Prince of Darkness himself. Ignatieff.
Moving from critters to political critters!
This weekend sees the election of a new leader for the Liberal party of Canada, the long long battle for power which has been going on for almost a year now.
There are eight contestants: Michael Ignatieff (intellectual and former journalist), Bob Rae (former NDP premier in Ontario), Gerard Kennedy (social reformer young type), Stephan Dion (Quebecois candidate, former Minister for the Environment here), Ken Dryden (former hockey goalie and newbie politician), Scott Brison (Nova Scotian who has been the star of this blog before), some other non-entity I can't remember and Martha the woman with the double barrelled name who is coming in last.
There's a huge conference in Montreal where they are all giving speeches tonight and so I am in happy land.
Prepare to be bored for the next twenty four hours.
Very very bored.
Obviously I am up for Bob Rae. Although Ken Dryden's my underdog hero and his speech rocked just a bit ago. And when he came offstage a journalist asked him what he wanted and he bellowed "I want my canada back" at her. V. funny. I know exactly what he meant.
Stephan Dion is talking now and he has a very strong Quebec accent which I find offputting (along with most of Canada although they won't admit it). Although Dion was a good Minister of the Environment.
But he won't win I think. Although traditionally Liberal leaders come from Quebec.
Paul Martin was from Quebec, but he didn't sound like Dion.
Happy happy junkie politics place....! They're all taking lumps out of the Tories.
I should get myself a beer now.
There are eight contestants: Michael Ignatieff (intellectual and former journalist), Bob Rae (former NDP premier in Ontario), Gerard Kennedy (social reformer young type), Stephan Dion (Quebecois candidate, former Minister for the Environment here), Ken Dryden (former hockey goalie and newbie politician), Scott Brison (Nova Scotian who has been the star of this blog before), some other non-entity I can't remember and Martha the woman with the double barrelled name who is coming in last.
There's a huge conference in Montreal where they are all giving speeches tonight and so I am in happy land.
Prepare to be bored for the next twenty four hours.
Very very bored.
Obviously I am up for Bob Rae. Although Ken Dryden's my underdog hero and his speech rocked just a bit ago. And when he came offstage a journalist asked him what he wanted and he bellowed "I want my canada back" at her. V. funny. I know exactly what he meant.
Stephan Dion is talking now and he has a very strong Quebec accent which I find offputting (along with most of Canada although they won't admit it). Although Dion was a good Minister of the Environment.
But he won't win I think. Although traditionally Liberal leaders come from Quebec.
Paul Martin was from Quebec, but he didn't sound like Dion.
Happy happy junkie politics place....! They're all taking lumps out of the Tories.
I should get myself a beer now.
Exciting (or possibly tragic) news on the critter front!
Queenie went out last night and had a few pints to mark the last night of being able to smoke in the pub and needless to say the pub was packed so she crawled home too late. And all day today she had a headache. Until she left work at four o'clock, whereupon the headache miraculously disappeared.
Which just goes to prove that it is work that I am allergic to and not too much alcohol.
I always knew that.
Anyways, on to critter talk and then we will be done with it.
Himself shot Mr. Buck through the lungs the other night with his Swedish early twentieth century sniper rifle and now we have a freezer full of venison.
So there. No more critter talk, there's too much death in it.
Tragic perhaps. Yummy definitely.
Which just goes to prove that it is work that I am allergic to and not too much alcohol.
I always knew that.
Anyways, on to critter talk and then we will be done with it.
Himself shot Mr. Buck through the lungs the other night with his Swedish early twentieth century sniper rifle and now we have a freezer full of venison.
So there. No more critter talk, there's too much death in it.
Tragic perhaps. Yummy definitely.
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