Ooookay... there are 1,100 votes up for grabs.
Here's what I think.
Ignatieff probably won't win now. In fact, he's left the convention floor to huddle with his advisors.
Kennedy asked his delegates to go to Dion. The reason he has done this is because he is from Ontario and wants a Quebec leader, so that the next time it will be an Ontarian (traditional the Liberal leaders alternate).
The polling shows that Kennedy's delegates are evenly split between Rae and Dion. If this happens, Dion will remain in third place and will be knocked off the the ballot paper. Then Rae will beat Iggy as Dion's people will go to Rae.
If Dion gets 2/3 of the delegates, and Rae gets 1/3 (including the Dryden votes), then they will both pass Iggy and he will fall off the ballot paper. That will be really interesting, as the final showdown will be between a francophone policy wonk and an Ontarian former socialist. The Liberals need Rae, but they might not be able to stomach him and go for Dion. That will be a mistake. Dion will not beat Harper.
If Dion gets all of Kennedy's votes, then he will jump into the lead and Dryden's votes will decide who comes second. Rae could fall off the ballot then. If that is the case, then possibly his vote could give it to Ignatieff.
But I don't think Dion will get that much of a transfer. He's too francophone.
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